Editor’s Note: Have we got a treat for you. One of our long-term friends, Granny, has agreed to share some of her thoughts with our readers. This will be an absolutely non-regular, occasional series called “Granny Explains Shit.” Here is her first installment.
I thought I’d attempt to do a shortish post on the election, but it’s mostly nonpartisan. I think it’s important for everyone to understand this information so that no one is shocked or dismayed once again on election day regardless of who wins the Presidency.
1) Most Americans do not understand national polls are largely irrelevant. The President is not elected based on nationwide popularity.
2) The most important polling and data is battleground states. Most states routinely vote overwhelmingly R or D. The handful of swing states and how many are competitive is the only thing that matters as far as the Electoral College is concerned.
3) The Democrats are now admitting they are absolutely not double digits ahead. Mainly because they banked on vote by mail and they don’t have the numbers they need. They now need to pivot and sound the alarm to get the vote out. I have been expecting this because the data has consistently shown this is a very close race.
4) This is a very close race. The battleground states are all about turnout. The Republicans have made huge gains in registered voters in most of the battleground states. The Democrats also have huge numbers in these states. Turnout will be the difference.
5) The battleground states are Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. Whoever wins enough of those states with the most electoral votes wins the election. Everything else is noise.
6) Here is a slide from a grassroots summit presented by Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon outlining their state targets. Note the categories of Protect, Win Back, and Expand to demonstrate what is going on right now.