Where to Live III – Demographics

6 mins read

This is a post no one really wants to write, a subject few Americans truly wants to address.  Even Alex Jones, in his documentary film Strategic Relocation, blames potential collapse-driven ethnic strife on Globalists playing otherwise peaceful people against one another.  That is, if I might be so bold, a cop-out. All multi-cultural empires, when they come apart, do so along fairly predictable lines. As politically incorrect as it is to say so, America is not immune from this possibility, and we know from history where the lines are likely to be. So let’s take a nasty issue head on and let the chips fall where they may.
A poor, scared, shocked, hungry, untrusting population is one to which differences matter. Trust and cooperation is withdrawn from those considered ‘outsiders,’ resulting in a fracturing of society into smaller groups. The popular word for the process is balkanization, in which Yugoslavia broke into a series of racial and ethnic enclaves (the Balkan states) hostile to one another and to minorities within each. Balkanization is the bad side of devolution.
A instructive recent example of the process is Crimea, where two major ethnic/linguistic groups do not see eye to eye.* The ethnic Russian / Russian-speaking population, a majority in the region of Crimea but a minority in all of Ukraine, prefers the government in Moscow to that of Kiev. Once they joined Russia, their own minorities, including Tatars and ethnic Ukranians, began to experience the same mistreatment that the Crimean Russians sought to escape. The most peaceful solution appears to be a separation of peoples who cannot live together. The Ukranian-speakers will move back to Ukraine, Russian-speakers will move to Crimea. Hopefully it can be done peacefully, unlike the 1944 eviction of 140,000 Tatars from the area. Crimea didn’t get a Russian ethnic majority simply by having nice beaches.
Differences that might cause such a separation (whether through secession or driving out**) come in a number of flavors, not limited to language, religion, culture, nationality, race, and political ideology. Let’s address a few of them that might be an issue in a much poorer, more radicalized, balkanized America.
I believe language is going to be the biggie. As is often the case when things go south in a hurry, conformity becomes primary. One who speaks a different language from the majority is usually of a different culture, often of a different nationality, and occasionally of a different religion and race to boot. It’s five mistrusts for the price of one, and I suspect we will see a furious backlash against “Press ‘1’ for English.”
The primary area where trouble will arise is where it always arises: in geographical areas where neither of two clashing cultures holds an overwhelming majority. This means mixed areas and borders, or areas where a mass immigration or migration is overtaking a native population. Ironically, the only Dagbanli-speaking Ghanan immigrant in Hays, Kansas, will probably be safer than he would be in Ghana because he’ll be considered a curiosity rather than a threat. But a Spanish-speaking Mexican in an area where lots of English-speakers and Spanish-speakers are fighting over shrinking water rights is going to have a tougher time.
I would not be surprised to see a reprise of Operation Wetback, where Mexicans are forcibly repatriated to the south of the Rio Grande River.  Should the Spanish-speakers win the struggle, part of the United States could conceivably secede, assuming, as is the case in Ukraine – the central government lacks to power to stop it.
There are plenty of other potential troubles as well. Recent immigrants like Somalis in Minnesota and Iraqis in Michigan could face significant persecution from surrounding white communities, as could Asian-dominated enclaves and blacks in Hispanic-controlled neighborhoods. This is already happening, and may only get more blatant and violent. In contested areas, whites associated with inner city culture, bi-racial people, or those in mixed marriages could all face troubles they might not face in another area. Loyalty to much smaller groups will be demanded yet harder to prove.
Race may be an issue, but it also may be different than it has been in the American past and in Europe. In the 20th century, European ancestry morphed into the generic ‘white.’  That makes the map above, which separates out Germans from Irish from Finns, a bit misleading. The largest ethnic group over the largest area is not German Americans but white Americans. So you’re not likely to have inter-ethnic white gang wars here as in Crimea. Germans from Wisconsin are not going to exterminate Slavs from Iowa, because American whites identify with America, not wherever nation their ancestors fled. There are also no significant language distinctions amongst American whites.
Because the first ‘post-crash’ identification will likely be hyper-patriotism, blacks, to the extent that they share a culture with white Americans, are unlikely to experience a nationwide legal backlash.  Just as whites see other whites primarily as Americans, few whites deny that blacks are just as American – where they differ in skin color they make up for in shared nationality and culture. But shared culture – especially conformity in language and dress – will be critical. This will last so long as people primarily identify as American, which may be a long time, or may not. There’s simply no way to know.
On the other hand, blacks who are a part of the oppositional culture most identified with the inner city may be in for a very hard time.  Crises are not times when the majority of Americans are going to continue to tolerate or underwrite this dependent, infantile, and self-destructive culture.  This will especially be the case if big cities get out of control and looting breaks out into the suburbs.  I fully expect a number of Northern cities to be locked down for that very reason. Woe to the one who does not escape before the bridges to the suburbs are blown.
In southern areas where blacks and whites struggle fairly evenly for political control and political spoils, there certainly exists real potential for race-based mistreatment, especially since in these areas segregation is only a long lifetime in the past. Even then, blatant private segregation and random violence is more likely than a legal subjugation of minorities, at least at first.
This is where I’ll admit I’m most likely to be overly optimistic, however.  As a dad of black kids, I obviously don’t wish to see a nationwide, forced segregation. I also see no reasonable argument for it in most places. But things may get out of control anyway, and mass migrations can change anything, anywhere, any time.
So what does it all mean?  It does not mean that one can make the possibility of a balkanization of America go away by calling it racist.  It does not mean one can make it go away by wishing fervently.
It means that if America does break apart under the strain of societal/monetary collapse, it will likely do so in some part along racial/ethnic/language/cultural lines.  If it does, minorities*** in contested areas may have a very hard time.  There may be a forced driving of language/religion/race minorities from various areas, and ethnic cleansing by forced segregation.
Joel Garreou once posited that there are Nine Nations in North America, culturally speaking.  Under any number of SHTF scenarios, that number is likely to be low.  The wise prepper is the one who understands what the divisions will likely be, forecasts where the ground will separate,**** and remains a safe distance back from the fault lines.
* This is the reason that modern leftist race politics is evil and is ultimately destructive.  If we disagree on free trade, for example, we can still reach an agreement by reason or compromise. If we disagree on matters of race, if we demean and denigrate and build mistrust over racial injustice (real or as is often the case today, imagined), we cannot peacefully co-exist because neither of us can change our skin. We can only subjugate each other or separate. Exacerbating these tensions today for short-term political gain all but guarantees they will loom larger tomorrow. 
** For example, up to 100,000 people, black and white, left the newly formed United States following the Revolutionary War.  Blacks sought to escape slavery, but many whites were all but forced to leave, enduring physical and financial punishment in a new country to which they would not pledge allegiance.
*** This is the white man in the Latino areas as much as the Black man in the white ones. It might even mean the treehugger in Ohio and the Yankee in Georgia. It’s not about race, it’s about differences that other people think matter.
**** And quite possibly, where other people think the prepper belongs. This is not a situation where you choose sides so much as you find out which side considers you too different to be accepted into the trusted group.

El Borak is an historian by training, an IT Director by vocation, and a writer when the mood strikes him. He lives in rural Kansas with his wife of thirty years, where he works to fix the little things.


  1. Excellent starting point for this discussion. It is not a “fun” topic, but one we better get ready for.

  2. Sidebar before the discussion starts: anyone have an explanation for the oddity of the Mormons apparently claiming “English” as their descent? One would think they would go with American…
    I get the New Englanders claiming it up in Vermont, Maine, etc. But Utah threw me for a loop.

    • The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day saints was started in up state New York. It’s safe to say that most New Englanders can claim being of English decent, When the church started missionary work, the first foreign country that men were called to was England. The book of Mormon was written in English and was easy to supply for England. After that the next country was Norway( Norwegian gal here) . The majority of the English converts wanted to be where the larger body of church members were . SO ….. They came to the the U.S. and lived where ever the Mormons were. We were kicked out of every state we settled in . Homes burnt, men killed, women raped.. and finally church leaders said .. let’s get the heck outta Dodge and started the move to Utah. As more people in the UK joined the church more joined up with the wagon train. After Salt Lake City was established, the British kept coming . For a while, for every one native born American you spoke to… there were 3 Brits you talked to first.

  3. Aside from Mormons, those claiming “american” are primarily scots-irish. Interesting that the single largest demographic/genetic element of America (“English”) is hardly claimed.

  4. Re: white-black conflict in south, major urban areas (hi Atlanta!) will be a bloody battleground. Rural areas not so much. Blacks may be able to carve out city-states (hello again Atlanta!) but those will be unlikely to survive without support from outside the south. Rural areas will experience a self-selection process as many blacks flees to cities or to other leftist areas. Those who remain will be those more comfortable with separate but equal era traditions.
    The Midwest will be a longer war. Natural reluctance to change the status quo and well-entrenched churchianity will delay the inevitable conflict and make it worse.
    Mexifornia will fall (has fallen?) without a fight.
    Texas will have a civil war. Short, bloody, viscious, and remain Texas.
    The pacific NW will become Canada south.
    The left will control the DC-Boston corridor and nearby areas and claim to be the United States while making war on the American Nations.

    • I will have to disagree on the Midwest, sir. It will be by far the bloodiest, most violent, and have the most atrocities commited. But I don’t believe it will take as long. As you correctly called, there is a lot of reluctance to get something started and we bear a lot up here before action. When the spark catches, though, we go at it with a ruthless abandon and a lot of that old Northern European efficiency and vigor.
      However, for the same reason it will take a longer time to get rolling, it will close up faster. We don’t like conflict up here as a general rule. More emphasis is put on Order, rather than Freedom (to our own detriment, I will not argue, but that is how things fall, and a discussion for another time). As soon as a strong horse appears, the average Midwesterner will say: thank goodness that bit of bother is over, now things can settle back down to peace and we can mind our own business again.

  5. One other thing that mucks up this map is the actual numbers that are represented. Up here in Indiana, that one purple blotch in the center of the state is Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Sure, African American is the majority in the county…at a whopping 26%. There is a heck of a lot of other things going into the mix here when things break loose. Not this pan-White nonsense that gets spouted, but as the author alluded to, the obvious distinctions are going to be the ones that come under fire first.
    The thing to be worried about is the mass migration that is going to take place. Right now, there are a hell of a lot of people that have moved about the country. No roots to speak of at all. Once the cracks start forming up, I am calling there is going to be a sort of Bethlehem event that will take place over time. Every man to his home, so to speak. Those with no roots will feel the stress and the cracks that are starting to form and instinctfully look for a place where they are “home”.
    So there will be a massive outflow from the cities back into the countryside where people departed from because it wasn’t “hip”, or “trendy”, or whatever BS the kids say these days. How will those who remained at home respond to this? With open arms or violence? And how do we keep the contagion that is all nicely bottled up right now in the cities from destroying everything they touch?
    Best we can hope for is they stay in their packed squalor and keep clutching onto their false gods to save them. A lot of tragedies and deaths, but perhaps the best for whatever nations spring up next.

  6. Hey Hoosier, I hope you’re right about the speed of resolution, but inertia is a powerful force and that order Uber alles attitude is won’t to prefer partial solutions and half measures that will prolong the violence. I do agree that the end will be quick and bloody, I just think it will take a lot of leftist violence to bring most to the point where they are willing to go that far.
    I’m in your state today. Pretty country down around Bloomington. Not as flat as I expected. You have, however, been invaded by aliens shaped like orange and white striped barrels!
    There is the slim chance that Trumpian civic nationalism could succeed in a nation formed by the Midwest and south but it would require Tom Kratman’s draconian enforcement of chauvanistic nationalism. Literal love it or leave it nationalism(but we are generous: go on your feet, or feet first…choose wisely).

    • I will still stand that southern Indiana is the prettiest land in the US, especially come Fall. You have to move north past the Wabash to get into the flat, fertile corn country. If you are down in the looney land of Bloomington, swing over to Gnaw Bone, IN. It’s about a half hour East and home of Bear Wallow Distillery. Not terrible bad for our newly legal distilling industry and a great drive.

  7. Sorry, when TSHTF , the lines will be drawn racially. Oh, there will be some cleansing of white marxists and police departments, but it will devolve into race. And the reasons are multitudinous – as well as necessary . First and foremost, it is the natural order. Birds of a feather do indeed flock together. Those who read and actually believe what their Bible says know that we are told to be separate; God created ‘the nations and placed them in their places’.
    But the overriding reason beyond our fatigue of the POCs is the fact that no other races -especially blacks – can function in anything resembling white/civilised society. You can scream and cry and wring your hands about such ‘waycism’, but it doesnt change the fact.

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